Global Rice Market Experiences Repercussions from India’s Export Ban

Exporters across Asia and as far south as South America have been forced to consider the potential financial repercussions before increasing their sales as a result of the prohibition on new shipments of non-Basmati white rice from the world’s largest source of the crop.

The non-Basmati white rice, which made up almost a third of India’s non-Basmati rice exports in 2022–2023 (April–March), is included in the ban, which was announced on July 20. In 2022–2023, India exported 17.8 million metric tons of non-Basmati rice, compared to 6.39 million metric tons of rice that was subject to the export embargo.

Physical rice exporters prefer to trade in more stable conditions rather than the volatile ones that financial markets like because they frequently haven’t yet secured the domestic supply of the goods they are committed to ship. The profit for the exporter may be reduced or even eliminated if farmers raise prices between the time an exporter agrees to a sale and sources rice.

Based on a report by S&P Global, the food shortage in African nations will get worse. Pakistan will profit from this embargo by filling the gap that India has caused. When the fresh crops arrive in September, the majority of customers will look to Pakistan for supply, which anticipates the cost of Pakistani 5% broken white rice to surpass $600/mt FOB as demand rises.

Although there are now fewer outlets for white rice in India, as was expected, the price has increased for parboiled rice, which is not affected by the export prohibition.

Outside of India, both buyers and sellers are waiting for the markets to become more calm.

The third largest rice exporter in the world, Vietnam, saw the impact of the ban’s upward pressure on rice prices within a few days, according to a source there. Prices for 5%, 25%, and 100% broken white rice were routinely $20 to $25/mt higher than they were prior to the embargo.

There are indications that some yet-to-be-fulfilled export agreements may be in danger if exporters find it difficult to procure the more expensive rice necessary to carry them through.

According to an importer in the Philippines, this is causing a nervous wait for goods that were already signed and sealed before the prohibition. The nation ranks among the largest per capita rice users worldwide and is one of Vietnam’s top customers.